Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 2.574152 2.746487 2.930502 3.142645 3.381784 3.644592 3.957451
2025-02-16 2.293297 2.522592 2.780686 3.096219 3.476566 3.927065 4.511879
2025-02-23 2.122505 2.383287 2.687671 3.075755 3.567595 4.185490 5.047801
2025-03-02 1.993432 2.273259 2.609026 3.051459 3.635435 4.406481 5.554020
2025-03-09 1.890656 2.183197 2.542241 3.028563 3.693299 4.610697 6.060436
2025-03-16 1.812374 2.115877 2.495902 3.023600 3.768594 4.841130 6.640530
2025-03-23 1.761722 2.078774 2.483622 3.059926 3.900888 5.166793 7.435751
2025-03-30 1.687779 2.006446 2.419025 3.016892 3.910699 5.302105 7.929048
2025-04-06 1.620932 1.939487 2.356926 2.971425 3.910278 5.417590 8.407832
2025-04-13 1.549268 1.862565 2.276784 2.893730 3.851922 5.427272 8.678037
2025-04-20 1.520431 1.841446 2.271815 2.924800 3.966040 5.746005 9.674150
2025-04-27 1.501768 1.832838 2.283182 2.980017 4.123265 6.164250 11.037305
2025-05-04 1.478579 1.817517 2.284912 3.021808 4.264764 6.582564 12.600159
2025-05-11 1.437237 1.775168 2.245469 2.996437 4.287592 6.770740 13.633710
2025-05-18 1.401102 1.738624 2.212592 2.978984 4.322145 6.988236 14.867914
2025-05-25 1.365970 1.702104 2.177941 2.956151 4.344194 7.182142 16.140867
2025-06-01 1.333408 1.668038 2.145353 2.934457 4.365898 7.378834 17.557249
2025-06-08 1.307249 1.642212 2.123936 2.929752 4.418995 7.657953 19.518501
2025-06-15 1.292445 1.632207 2.125906 2.964204 4.551199 8.155975 22.959392
2025-06-22 1.260134 1.595539 2.085397 2.923388 4.529154 8.259199 24.573549
2025-06-29 1.228914 1.559597 2.044752 2.880242 4.498800 8.336408 26.163853
2025-07-06 1.191917 1.514213 1.988032 2.806460 4.399865 8.213603 26.444362
2025-07-13 1.180619 1.506562 1.989983 2.835973 4.519274 8.720984 31.714376